The Unintended Part II: Border Patrol

The second of two interesting news items from today, both which exhibit the Law of Unintended Consequences.

Border Patrol.

What happens in America when rogue groups pressure government into a full-thrust of somewhat disorganized border patrols on our souther border? What happens when they work to close the border, with fence posts and drunken vigilantes, in order to lock illegals out, without understanding the economic and social incentives?

Thus arises the "Paradox" of a winter clampdown on the border based on lobby-actions and vigilante groups: It turns out that the more we try to lock them out, the more we're actually just locking them in:

Traditionally, many of the migrants who crossed the border illegally to plant and harvest return home to Mexico by the time the winter fog unfurls over California's farm belt, emptying towns such as Parlier.

That annual migration has slowed dramatically in the past few years as tougher border enforcement has prompted fears of capture and persuaded many immigrants to stay put -- even if there is little work in the U.S.

Jorge Garcia, 26, left the Mexican state of Michoacan two years ago to join two cousins and a brother working the grapevines around this town just south of Fresno. Like roughly half the men and women who work the fields in the United States, he came illegally.

He had hoped to go home during the winter, after the vines were pruned. Now, the fruit stands scattered around this town of 12,000 are empty and shuttered, and there's little for him to do.

"Going home is too expensive and dangerous," he said.

Garcia and others like him choose to live meagerly through the winter rather than risk capture or death when they try to return. He shares a house with friends and family members, hoping to get through the cold months by doing odd jobs in town.

...
Other research suggests a trend. In 1998, about 45 percent of the nation's farmworkers said they'd spent time out of the country within the previous year, according to the National Agricultural Workers Survey. By 2002, 28 percent of farmworkers in the country said they'd spent time outside the U.S., the survey said.

The Border Patrol increased enforcement following the 2001 terrorist attacks, catching 905,065 people in 2003, 1,139,282 in 2004 and 1,171,305 last year.

More border patrol agents along stretches that are easier to cross have pushed immigrants into rugged desert and mountain areas. A record 415 people died crossing the border illegally in the fiscal year that ended in September, according to the Border Patrol. The previous high was 383 deaths in 2000.

Some examples of the drop in migrant crossings are dramatic.

From November 24, 2003, to January 11, 2004, 141,412 immigrants entered Nogales, Mexico, from Arizona, according to Mexican authorities. That fell to 61,981 between November 2004 and January 2005. Between November 1 and December 14, that number fell to fewer than 18,000.

"Once people come over, they don't go back because they don't want to risk being caught," said Rogelio Fernandez, a doctor and the associate director of the Parlier Family Health Center, which serves mostly farmworkers.

University of California-Davis labor economist Phil Martin calls it the "paradox of tougher enforcement."

"You actually get more people to stay," he said.

The problem isn't tougher enforcement- the problem is the thinking by these groups on the right that tougher enforcement is the only solution. Because it's not. In fact, it shows a severe lack of vision and insight to this issue- and a certain ironic glow: the more groups like the Minute Men try to shut down the border, with rhetoric of racism, the more they actually force these groups to stay.

Where as, if a border control solution were enacted with a reasonable economic and social plan or vision, the situation would be stymied. If we had ways to track, hire, and tax this group of people, we'd be a hell of a lot better off.

Oh well. I guess the gun nuts who want to close the border just really really like having these groups of illegals around. Otherwise, you'd think they'd want to find ways to help them to leave...