The Reconstitution of a Nuclear Program

Tony Blair has threatened to take Iran to the UN for reconstituting it's nuclear program:

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair says Iran's decision to resume its nuclear activities is likely to result in a referral to the UN Security Council.

Speaking in parliament, Mr Blair said European ministers meeting in Berlin on Thursday would decide how to proceed.

A US state department spokesman also said it was now "more likely than ever" that the case would be sent to the UN.

But Iran's leader dismissed the threat. He said the research would go on despite the Western "fuss".

Tehran says it broke the United Nations seals on the Natanz nuclear research facility on Tuesday because it wants to produce electricity, not because it is pursuing nuclear weapons.

Blair has capitalized on the political aid of President Bush- pressured by the pure fact that they missed invading a nation that took steps toward a WMD program by only one nation [and one letter]. Bush, of course, is in an interesting position- it is historically arguable that Iran, actually, began feverishly pursuing anti-western action and reconstituting their nuclear capabilites as a result of the US invasion of their neighbor, and former enemy, Iraq. They elected an extreme hard-line president after the invasion, whose rhetoric has been steeped in anti-US vitriol and whose C.V. includes [potentially] masterminding the student takeover of the US Embessy in Tehran in 1979.

Cute.

Iranians, however, are of mixed opinion- some question the regime's motivations, and others accept their right toward nuclear enrichment. But in an interesting analysis, the Guardian states that Iran's intentions are largely geopolitically tactical:

Conscious of the clamour from the west to refer Iran to the council, some people voiced mistrust of their country's nuclear ambitions and feared that the issue could escalate into military conflict. Others, more sympathetic to the Islamic regime, asserted Iran's right to nuclear energy, and even nuclear weapons, saying the nation was being singled out by Islam's enemies.

It was a sharp division of opinion unlikely to be mirrored within the regime itself, said analysts. While the power structure is riddled with disagreements between the ultra-Islamist government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and more traditional conservatives in parliament, senior regime figures are at one in backing the hardball approach on the nuclear issue. The reason is that the most sensitive nuclear decisions are in the hands of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, rather than with President Ahmadinejad.

"There is no issue in which everybody in the regime is united, but in this special case there is more unity than on any other," said Saeed Leylaz, a political analyst based in Tehran. That was because the decision to break the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) seals to restart work at the Natanz nuclear facility came from the supreme leader, he said. "Nuclear issues are absolutely separate from the government and I don't believe this is Mr Ahmadinejad's decision."

While western governments cast Tuesday's move as a serious step towards uranium enrichment and, ultimately, atomic weapons, analysts in Tehran argued that the regime's intentions were purely tactical.

Mr Leylaz said: "This is not the beginning of enrichment. But diplomatically it's very aggressive and intended to gain advantage for the Iranian side. We've had two plane crashes in the past month caused by American economic sanctions against Iran. Those accidents are forcing Iran to take a more aggressive stance towards the sanctions. The regime wants to start real negotiations with the US, because it doesn't think the Europeans are authorised to negotiate properly. This move is aimed at breaking the circle and getting America's attention."

Another analyst said: "This decision is about forcing the west to come up with something substantial and serious. Iran wants rewards for not turning its nuclear programme into a weapons programme. The Russians are saying, come and do uranium enrichment on our soil, but there's no reward for that. The regime is saying, if you want us to work with the Russians, there's a price - which is lifting the sanctions, security guarantees, economic incentives and recognition of Iran's role in the region."

So the regional power play has become, once again, the potential for building up nuclear arms- In the war on terror, the only way a terroristic nation-state can gain political capital seems to have become...

by becoming more potentially terroristic.

Good luck at the UN, Mr. Blair.