Insurgency for 12 Years

Rumsfeld said today that the Insurgency in Iraq will outlast American capability; in fact, that it would not be defeated by American forces, and must be defeated by Iraqis:

“Coalition forces, foreign forces are not going to repress that insurgency,” the Pentagon chief told Fox News Sunday”

“We're going to create an environment that the Iraqi people and the Iraqi security forces can win against that insurgency,” he said.

Mr. Rumsfeld, in interviews on the Sunday news shows, warned that the insurgency could grow through the year as Iraqi leaders develop a constitution for a democratic government.

At the same time, Mr. Rumsfeld defended Vice President Dick Cheney's description of the insurgency as being in its “last throes.” Mr. Rumsfeld said the U.S. commander in the Middle East did not contradict Cheney when he told the Senate last week that the insurgency was as strong as it was six months ago.

He also said that the galvanizing force in the Insurgency currently is al Zarqawi, but that his sympathies run thin among the Iraqi people, and that his terrorism operates against their national interests and that they're aware of it. [In saying both of these things, Rumsfeld crafts this week's Iraqi talking point on the right: that the Insurgency can't be defeated by Americans and must be dealt with by Iraqis, thus absolving America of the responsibility to try as well as the blame for the current failures and escalating violence...]

But Rumsfeld sets up a dismal picture between these two elements: while there may be no national, galvanizing force in al Zarqawi, given up to 12 years of successful Insurgency, there's plenty of time for one [or more] to rise. Muqtada al Sadr has defected from violence into the government, but any cleric at any time may pull back; use his followers as operatives to regalvanize regions of Iraq, as al Sadr has done, into something resembling a unified force.

So while al Zarqawi may not be the catalyst for an identity in the Insurgency, the crime would be in allowing that Insurgency enough time to legitimize whatever forces may come along.